A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
